Course Guide · Birdie Fest
TPC CraigRanch.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson · Par 71 · 7,385 yards (2026) · McKinney, Texas
Tom Weiskopf's 2004 design, completely rebuilt by Lanny Wadkins in a $25 million renovation completed in late 2025. New bentgrass greens, Stadium Zoysia fairways, TifTuf Bermuda rough, and repositioned bunkers. The scoring floor is still low. But this is no longer bomb-and-gouge golf.
7,385
Yards (2026)
Post-renovation
01 — Course Profile
TPC Craig Ranch's fingerprint.
Tom Weiskopf built the original TPC Craig Ranch in 2004 on a relatively flat piece of north Dallas property, threading it through Rowlett Creek and its limestone banks. The result was a course that consistently ranked among the five easiest on the PGA Tour schedule. Winning scores pushed into the mid-20s under par annually. Scheffler's 31-under in 2025 closed the case on the old design needing a serious rethink.
The $25 million Lanny Wadkins renovation overhauled almost every playing surface. Fairways are now Stadium Zoysia. Greens are 777 Bentgrass, heat-resistant and newly recontoured with more pin positions. Rough is TifTuf Bermudagrass at 3.25 inches. Bunkers were repositioned and a massive waste bunker called "Hell's Full Acre" now bisects hole 5. The course also plays 184 yards shorter than 2025 at 7,385 yards, after par-hole conversions changed the routing: the old par-5 18th is now a 480-yard par-4, and the old par-4 12th is now a 540-yard par-5. Three par 5s remain, with two on the front nine.
Fairway widths measure 25-28 yards, comparable to TPC Sawgrass and Riviera, and notably tighter than the course's old reputation suggests. The renovation was specifically designed to penalize offline tee shots more than before. This is no longer a bomb-and-gouge track. The fairways are narrower than Augusta's average 50 yards by a significant margin. Off-target drives will now find Bermuda rough, not the forgiven shortgrass they found in prior editions.
Model classification
TPC Craig Ranch post-renovation is a tee-to-green efficiency course with a bentgrass putting premium. The old version rewarded any profile that could make birdies. The new version filters for players who find fairways, attack recontoured greens, and convert on the faster bent surfaces. SG:T2G is the single most reliable winner predictor across all five Craig Ranch editions. It should be treated as the anchor stat, not a secondary one.
02 — What the model weights
Stats that predict winners.
The actual SG ranking data across all five Craig Ranch winners is stark. SG:T2G: every single winner ranked top-10 in the field. SG:APP: four of five ranked top-10 (Pendrith at 38th is the outlier, propped up by a historically hot putting week). SG:OTT: all five ranked top-25. SG:ARG: completely random — Scheffler ranked 57th while winning by 8, and the category has zero meaningful predictive pattern here. That last point matters more than most models acknowledge.
SG: Tee-to-Green
Weight: 35%
Every winner at TPC Craig Ranch ranked top-10 in the field in SG:T2G. It is the single most consistent predictor across all five editions — more reliable than any individual sub-category. The renovation makes tee-to-green efficiency more valuable, not less.
Four of five winners ranked top-10 in the field in SG:APP. The Pendrith exception required a once-a-season putting performance to overcome average approach numbers. Recontoured bentgrass greens post-renovation reward approach precision more than the old overseeded rye setup did.
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Weight: 22%
All five winners ranked top-15 in SG:Putting for the week. The new 777 Bentgrass surfaces are faster (Stimp 11.5ft) and more demanding than the old greens. Bentgrass-specific putting history matters. A player with a negative bent split is not a model play here regardless of ball-striking.
SG: Off the Tee
Weight: 15%
All five winners ranked top-25 in SG:OTT. The renovation tightens the weight on this stat — 3.25-inch TifTuf Bermuda rough punishes offline drives. The pre-renovation version forgave nearly every tee shot. Post-renovation, staying in the Stadium Zoysia fairways is more meaningful for approach angle and scoring access.
SG: Around the Green
No predictive value
Scheffler ranked 57th in the field in SG:ARG while winning by 8 strokes. No consistent pattern across any of the five winners. Soft greens and high GIR rates mean scrambling opportunities are infrequent. This stat is excluded from the model at this venue.
What the market gets wrong
Two things. First, the market overweights driving distance as a standalone factor while the actual winner profile shows total T2G efficiency matters far more than raw distance rank. Second, the market treats Craig Ranch historical data as fully predictive for 2026. It is not — the renovation changed the grass, the bunkers, the rough depth, and the hole configurations. Players with broad tee-to-green efficiency on renovated or similarly demanding venues carry an edge the market has not yet priced.
03 — Winner DNA
Profile of a CJ Cup Byron Nelson winner.
Based on actual SG rankings across all five winners at TPC Craig Ranch. Players who miss two or more of these filters have not won here.
Must have
SG:T2G Top-10
Every single winner ranked top-10 in the field in tee-to-green. No exceptions. It is the hardest filter in the model and the one the market consistently underweights relative to raw distance numbers.
Must have
SG:APP Top-15
Four of five winners ranked top-10. The one outlier (Pendrith, 38th) required top-1 putting for the week to compensate. The model does not underwrite that trade without a significant odds discount.
Must have
Bentgrass putter
All five winners ranked top-15 in SG:Putting for the week. New 777 Bentgrass greens at Stimp 11.5 elevate this filter. Negative bentgrass split on the season is a structural disqualifier.
Strong indicator
SG:OTT Top-25
All five winners ranked top-25 in SG:OTT. Post-renovation rough tightens this requirement. Distance matters, but finding the Zoysia fairways now has a measurable scoring impact that the old layout did not demand.
Strong indicator
Comp course form
Post-renovation, Colonial Country Club is the closest comp given the shorter yardage and similar demand profile. American Express and John Deere remain relevant. Strong performers at low-rough, high-birdie-volume venues with bentgrass greens upgrade significantly.
Form filter
Top-10 in 2026
11 of the last 12 Byron Nelson winners had already recorded a top-10 in the same season before winning here. It is not a hard disqualifier but a player without a top-10 in 2026 carries a meaningful form discount in the model.
04 — Winner history
Results at TPC Craig Ranch.
| Year |
Winner |
Score |
SG:T2G rank |
SG:APP rank |
SG:Putt rank |
| 2025 |
Scottie Scheffler |
-31 |
#10 |
#1 |
#6 |
| 2024 |
Taylor Pendrith |
-23 |
#4 |
#38 |
#14 |
| 2023 |
Jason Day |
-23 |
#1 |
#3 |
#28 |
| 2022 |
K.H. Lee |
-26 |
#5 |
#8 |
#13 |
| 2021 |
K.H. Lee |
-25 |
#2 |
#2 |
#9 |
SG:T2G top-10 in all five editions. SG:APP top-10 in four of five — Pendrith is the outlier but he ranked 4th in T2G overall, meaning his ball-striking carried the week even if approach specifically was average. SG:ARG had zero pattern (Scheffler ranked 57th in ARG while winning by 8). The model uses this data to exclude ARG from weighting entirely and anchor on T2G as the primary filter.
05 — Betting angles
How to attack the board.
01
Fade outright prices on pure distance without iron efficiency
The market consistently prices long drivers highly regardless of T2G and approach metrics. The actual winner data shows SG:T2G top-10 is the only universal qualifier across all five editions. Post-renovation Bermuda rough makes off-line tee shots genuinely punishing for the first time at this venue. Pure distance without SG:APP efficiency is a structural outright fade. Finish markets on these players may still offer value at the right number.
02
Target players with strong correlating course history at value
Post-renovation, Colonial Country Club is the closest comp given the shorter yardage and similar approach demands. American Express, John Deere, and Grand Reserve (Puerto Rico Open) remain relevant for the high-birdie-volume profile. A player with multiple top-10s at those venues but thin Craig Ranch history is often mispriced by a market that over-indexes on course-specific records that predate the renovation anyway.
03
Renovation uncertainty is a market inefficiency
The $25 million Lanny Wadkins renovation creates genuine uncertainty about how the course plays in 2026. The market has not priced this meaningfully into the odds. Players who perform well on renovated or reconfigured tracks, and who rank well in the post-renovation stat profile, carry a real edge that pre-renovation historical data does not fully reflect.
04
Scheffler pricing is structurally bad value
Opening odds around +150 to +170 represent implied probability near 37-40% for a single-tournament outcome in a 144-player field, even accounting for his dominant win here last year and his status as world No. 1. The model does not find positive EV at that price in outright markets. Fade the outright at +170; consider tournament top-5 or make-cut markets if you want exposure to him.
05
Lean finish markets given the thin field
This field is notably weaker post-PGA Championship. McIlroy, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, Aberg, Rose all out. Top-10 and Top-20 markets on players ranked 10th to 25th in the model output carry better risk-adjusted return than outrights in a field where a small number of players are genuinely mis-seeded relative to their course fit.
See the model applied
to this week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Full model rankings, complete picks card with tiers and reasoning, and fades in the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson analysis and on Substack.
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