Course Guide · Signature Event
MuirfieldVillage.
Memorial Tournament presented by Workday · Par 72 · 7,569 yards · Dublin, Ohio
Jack Nicklaus designed this course specifically to host major-style championship golf, and it plays like one. Tiny bentgrass greens rebuilt in 2021, thick penal rough, and a brutal closing stretch that has ended many rounds. The four par 5s are the only reliable birdie holes. Despite playing over 7,500 yards, distance off the tee is below average in importance — accuracy and iron precision win here.
202
Avg par-3 yds
Longest on Tour
2021
Green rebuild
All 18 rebuilt
50th
Anniversary
2026 edition
01 — Course Profile
Muirfield Village's fingerprint.
Nicklaus built Muirfield Village in 1974 on 220 acres outside Columbus, threading it through Scioto River tributaries. He founded the Memorial in 1976 and has refined the course constantly ever since. The 2021 renovation rebuilt all 18 greens and lengthened seven holes — arguably the most significant update in the course's history, and the one most relevant for current model calibration.
The most counterintuitive fact about Muirfield Village: despite measuring 7,569 yards, driving distance ranks among the lowest in importance of any course the model covers. The fairways are generous enough that length doesn't create a structural eagle advantage on the par 5s, and the premium rough punishes directional misses far more severely than short ones. Ball placement and approach precision are the separating skills.
Three of the four par 3s measure over 200 yards. That creates significant proximity scatter from distance — players who struggle with long irons into firm, sloping bentgrass greens face a structural scoring disadvantage across the entire layout. The course averages near par for the field most years, which is exceptional by modern Tour standards.
The closing three holes — known as the hardest stretch on property — play into prevailing wind off the back of the course. Scrambling quality matters precisely because those holes generate more missed greens than anywhere else on the layout.
02 — Model Weights
What actually predicts at Muirfield.
SG: Approach (APP)
30% — #1
Primary signal. "The challenge increases as the golfer nears the hole." Small 2021-rebuilt greens amplify approach dispersion. Long-iron approach quality is the dominant separator.
SG: Around Green (ARG)
20% — #2
Scrambling ranks above average in importance here. Thick rough and firm, sloping greens create more scrambling situations than comparable approach-dominant courses. Closing holes amplify this.
Par-5 Scoring Rate
18% — #3
The four par 5s are the only reliable birdie sources. Par-5 scoring rate is the biggest swing stat in the model — players who can't reach in two and make birdies are structurally capped.
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
15% — #4
New 2021 greens rate somewhat average in difficulty relative to other Tour bentgrass venues. Putting matters but doesn't dominate the way it does at Colonial.
Prox 175–200+ yds
12% — #5
Three par 3s over 200 yards. Long-iron proximity from this band is a model input specific to Muirfield. Weakness here shows up across the scorecard.
SG: Off the Tee (OTT)
5% — low weight
Counterintuitively low for a 7,569-yard course. Generous fairways reduce directional penalty. Distance ranks below average in driving stats relative to other courses. Precision wins, not power.
03 — Winner DNA
Recent winners at Muirfield Village.
| Year | Winner | Score | Key stat |
|---|
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler | −20 | Won by 4 over Ben Griffin. Led field in tee-to-green. Elite approach + par-5 scoring combination. |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | −19 | Back-to-back wins. Dominant ball-striking both years. Approach quality #1 or #2 in field each week. |
| 2023 | Viktor Hovland | −16 | Elite approach + ARG combination. Top-5 scrambler in the field for the week. |
| 2022 | Billy Horschel | −15 | Strong approach week combined with above-average putting. Precision over power profile. |
| 2021 | Patrick Cantlay | −19 | Dominant ball-striking performance. Pure approach and iron play — textbook Muirfield DNA. |
Pattern
Every winner since 2021 has ranked in the top 10 in the field in SG: Approach for the week. No winner has been outside the top 15 in approach quality in that span. The model's #1 signal has a near-perfect track record at this venue.
04 — Betting Angles
Annual framework for Muirfield Village.
01
APP + ARG combination is the core screen
Approach at 30% and ARG at 20% means half the model is these two categories combined. Players who rank top 20 in both for the season are the primary targets. The closing stretch forces scrambling — ARG is not optional here.
02
Par-5 scoring rate as a filter, not a screen
The four par 5s create the biggest point-of-difference between contenders. Players with below-average par-5 scoring who are heavily owned are structural fades — they need birdie production from somewhere the course doesn't provide.
03
Fade distance-based favorites aggressively
OTT at 5% is one of the lowest in the model. A player priced as a favorite primarily on driving distance and OTT statistics is a structural mismatch with what Muirfield rewards. Market overprices bombers at this venue consistently.
04
Long-iron proximity is a specific model input
Three par 3s averaging 202 yards means proximity from 175–200+ yards carries extra weight in the regression. Players with weak long-iron proximity data face a course-specific structural disadvantage not visible in overall approach numbers.
05
Course history signal is strong post-2021
The 2021 green rebuild created a new course fingerprint. Pre-2021 course results carry a discount. Post-2021 results — especially top-10 finishes with strong approach weeks — are highly predictive course history signals.
Model picks for the Memorial Tournament.
Full model rankings, tier picks, bankroll structure, and DFS lineup in the Substack newsletter. This week's event runs June 4–7, 2026.
Related guides