CourseGuides.

Key model insight: Firm, fast, dry links week. Driving Accuracy and SG: Approach are tied for the heaviest weight in the model at 16% each — the market's "wind and distance" framing is the wrong playbook this year.

Key model insight: Classic Scottish links course demanding precision in wind. European Tour pedigree and links experience are structural advantages. American power hitters face a disadvantage here.

Key model insight: The only PGA Tour team event. Four-ball and foursomes formats demand two different skill sets. Birdie-making upside wins four-ball. Chemistry and shared equipment win foursomes. Longshots win this event more than any other stop on Tour.

Key model insight: USGA major setup with thick rough and precision demands. Approach play dominates. Distance-first players are structural fades. Accuracy off the tee is the real edge.

Key model insight: Short-game and approach course with a position-off-the-tee filter. Smallest greens on Tour at 3,700 sq ft. The market overpays for bombers here every year. Distance is nearly irrelevant.

Key model insight: Second-shot course with a distance threshold. Approach play is the #1 predictor by a wide margin. Putting rank is nearly irrelevant. The market consistently overweights it.

Key model insight: Distance-first course at nearly 7,800 yards. Power is mandatory, not optional. Four par 5s separate the long hitters from everyone else. Small-green specialists are structural fades outright.

Key model insight: Power-and-precision course defined by the Green Mile closing stretch. Distance is the entry ticket. Rory McIlroy has four wins here — the prototypical profile.

Key model insight: Donald Ross push-up greens demand approach precision and elite scrambling. Par 70 with four par 3s — power premium is limited. Distance-only players are structural fades.