Current Analysis · Jun 4–7, 2026
MemorialTournament 2026.
Muirfield Village Golf Club · Dublin, Ohio · Par 72 · 7,569 yards · $20M purse · Signature Event #7
Scottie Scheffler enters as the +350 favorite seeking a third consecutive Memorial title — a run that would match Tiger Woods's 1999–2001 record. Elite field. Tiny rebuilt bentgrass greens, thick rough, and the most approach-dependent model profile in the first half of the season.
01 — Course Regression
What the model is weighting this week.
Muirfield Village is an approach-first course with a meaningful scrambling component. Despite playing 7,569 yards, driving distance ranks near the bottom of predictive importance — generous fairways and penal rough mean precision matters far more than length. The four par 5s are the primary scoring separation.
SG: Approach (APP)
30% — #1
Every Memorial winner since 2021 ranked top 10 in APP for the week. Non-negotiable in the model.
SG: Around Green (ARG)
20% — #2
Closing stretch generates more scrambling situations than anywhere else on the course. Elite ARG is non-optional.
Par-5 Scoring Rate
18% — #3
Only four reliable birdie sources. Players with below-average par-5 scoring are structurally capped on the leaderboard.
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
15% — #4
Prox 175–200+ yds
12% — #5
Three par 3s averaging 202 yards. Long-iron proximity is a model-specific input at this venue.
SG: Off the Tee (OTT)
5% — structural fade
Distance ranks below average in importance despite 7,569 yards. Market consistently overprices bombers here.
02 — Top Model Outputs
Model rankings preview.
Top-3 model scores shown here. Full 30-player rankings, value screen, edge percentages, tier picks, and DFS lineup in the Substack newsletter.
Model #1 · Top output
Scottie Scheffler
Back-to-back Memorial winner. Elite APP + ARG in every measurable category. Market probability vs model probability determines value screen outcome.
Model #3 · Edge play preview
Xander Schauffele
Nine consecutive Muirfield Village appearances, five Top 10s. Ranks 7th in tee-to-green among the field. Approach-first profile is a direct course fit.
Model #6 · Course specialist
Sepp Straka
Back-to-back Top 5s at Muirfield Village. Leads the field in gains on approach in five straight events. Local-knowledge course specialist with legitimate course history signal.
Fade signal · OTT mismatch
Distance-first profiles
Players priced heavily on driving distance or OTT at short prices face structural fade. OTT weight is 5%. Market misprices this at Muirfield consistently.
Full picks card on Substack
Complete tier-by-tier picks with bet sizing, E/W plays, Top 10/20 selections, longshots, and DFS lineup are in the free Substack newsletter. Published Thursday morning.
Full Memorial picks on Substack.
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