The second major of 2026 lands at Aronimink Golf Club, a Donald Ross design last used for Tour-level competition at the 2018 BMW Championship. Par 70, four par 3s, push-up greens with severe fall-offs and no water hazards. The course's defense is entirely architectural. Precision irons and elite scrambling. The model has a clear read on who fits.
Aronimink Golf Club was designed by Donald Ross and opened in 1926 in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, about 15 miles west of Philadelphia. The 2026 PGA Championship is only the second major held here — the first since Gary Player won the 1962 PGA Championship — and the first modern Tour event since the 2018 BMW Championship.
The Ross design is built around elevated, push-up greens with firm surrounds instead of rough. A missed green doesn't find a fluffy lie — it finds a steep slope, a firm collection area, or a sidehill chip with virtually no margin. There are no water hazards at Aronimink. The greens are the entire defense. This creates a very specific winner profile: players who either hit the correct sector of the green, or scramble extremely well when they don't.
Par 70 under major setup means the two par 5s are largely neutered at major distances. The four par 3s — each demanding precise iron play from 160 to 220 yards — account for a larger share of total scoring than at almost any other major venue. For full course breakdown, see the Aronimink Course Guide.
The model weight structure for Aronimink is intentionally different from Quail Hollow and Augusta. The distance premium that defines Doral and Quail Hollow is almost entirely absent here. APP and ARG carry over 48% of the combined weight — a higher combined share than any course the model has processed this season.
The 2018 BMW Championship field included most of the world's top players. True SG (strokes gained relative to field expectation) from Data Golf is the relevant figure — it adjusts for field strength. Players with higher True SG performed better at Aronimink than their baseline ability would predict.
The catch is sample size. Almost everyone has exactly four rounds of Aronimink data, from one tournament. The model applies a 5% bonus weight to course history — meaningful but not dominant. Pinehurst No. 2 (Donald Ross design, same push-up green philosophy) provides a secondary comp signal, specifically from the 2024 US Open.
| Player | 2018 True SG | 2018 Finish | 2024 US Open | Current Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +3.62 | T3 | T7 | Model #23 — ARG currently negative |
| Rory McIlroy | +3.37 | T5 | 2nd | Model #7 — ARG 0.107, below threshold |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2.87 | T8 | T16 | Model #5 — ARG elite now (0.518) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2.37 | 15th | T6 | Model #15 — strong Ross comp signal |
| Brooks Koepka | +1.87 | T19 | T26 | Model #19 — APP elite, ARG 0.065 |
| Adam Scott | +1.43 | T51 | T32 | Model #8 — APP 0.875 (2nd Tour) |
| Si Woo Kim | +0.37 | T41 | T32 | Model #13 — form much better than history |
| Patrick Cantlay | +0.55 | T55 | T9 | Model #14 — T9 Pinehurst a useful signal |
LIV players (DeChambeau, Koepka excluded above, Rahm, Reed) have no current PGA Tour SG data. DeChambeau won the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst and has prior Aronimink history. His form cannot be modeled from PGA Tour data — any position on him requires independent assessment of LIV stats, which are not directly comparable. The model does not include LIV-only players in the regression output.
Composite scores from the StrokesEdge Aronimink regression. Weights: APP (28%), ARG (20%), T2G (18%), GIR 175-200 (12%), par scoring efficiency (10%), scrambling (6%), putting (4%), OTT (2%). Course history from 2018 BMW blended in at 5% bonus weight. All inputs from 2026 PGA Tour year-to-date data.
The L2 filter requires APP ≥ +0.40, ARG ≥ +0.25, and T2G inside the top 30 on Tour. Four players clear all three gates. The top three model outputs are shown below.
| Rk | Player | Score | APP | ARG | T2G | GIR 175-200 | L2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 99.9 | +0.757 | +0.392 | +1.465 | 88.7% | ALL PASS |
| 2 | Cameron Young | 98.2 | +0.449 | +0.365 | +1.693 | 85.6% | ALL PASS |
| 3 | Ludvig Åberg | 94.3 | +0.609 | +0.362 | +1.620 | 84.7% | ALL PASS |
Four players clear all three L2 filters. The full 30-player ranked output, L3 value screen against DraftKings odds, complete picks card, fades, and bankroll structure are in the Substack newsletter.
The complete PGA Championship picks card — model rankings, value screen, tiers, fades, bankroll — is in the Substack newsletter. Free subscribers get everything before Thursday's first tee shot.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results.