Week 14 · Signature Event · No Cut · Inaugural
CadillacChampionship.
Trump National Doral · Blue Monster · Par 72 · 7,739 yards · April 30 – May 3, 2026
The PGA Tour returns to the Blue Monster for the first time since 2016. The longest course on the regular schedule outside of Torrey Pines South. The most distance-dependent venue in golf. The model framework here is unambiguous: power off the tee is mandatory, par 5 leverage is the scoring engine, and the market is mispricing precision specialists who simply do not have the tools to compete at 7,739 yards.
01 — Course Profile
Blue Monster fingerprint.
Originally designed by Dick Wilson and opened in 1962, the Blue Monster has hosted PGA Tour events for more than half a century. Gil Hanse renovated the course in 2014, lengthening tee boxes, repositioning bunkers, and bringing additional water into play across multiple holes. The course played host to the WGC-Cadillac Championship from 2011 to 2016, then sat dormant from a Tour perspective until LIV Golf began running events here in 2022. The 2026 Cadillac Championship is the inaugural Signature Event at the venue and the first PGA Tour stop here since Adam Scott's win in 2016.
At 7,739 yards par 72 with four par 5s, the course is structurally a power-and-precision test. Fairways measure 25-40 yards and accuracy is rewarded — but length is non-negotiable. The greens are large at roughly 7,200 square feet on average with run-off areas to thick Bermuda surrounds. Eleven holes have water in play. The 18th hole, the original "Blue Monster," is a 473-yard par 4 with water hugging the entire left side and a treacherous bunker complex. It plays as one of the hardest finishing holes in golf.
The model classifies the Blue Monster as a distance-first power course with a wind tolerance and par 5 leverage filter. The winner profile: top-30 driving distance minimum, positive SG: Off the Tee, elite par 5 scoring efficiency, and the ability to manage ball flight in South Florida wind. Players who lack length surrender too many strokes per round to overcome with precision.
For full course breakdown, see the Blue Monster Course Guide.
02 — What Actually Predicts Success Here
The stats that matter.
The model uses a weighted regression of pre-2017 WGC-Cadillac winner data, the 2024 and 2025 LIV Miami events at the same course, and recent comp courses (Bay Hill, Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines). The scoring weights below reflect the predictive strength of each stat at this venue specifically, not generic Tour averages.
#1 — SG: Off the Tee (30% model weight)
The most predictive stat at the Blue Monster, and it isn't close. At 7,739 yards with four par 5s, players who gain off the tee carry a structural advantage on every long approach and every par 5 second shot. Recent winners — Scott (2016), Johnson (2015), Reed (2014), Woods (2013) — all gained meaningful strokes off the tee for the week. Six of the top eight finishers in 2014 gained off the tee. The market routinely underprices this signal in favor of approach narratives.
#2 — Driving Distance / Par 5 Leverage (20% model weight)
Distance is a prerequisite, not just a metric. The four par 5s separate bombers reaching in two from shorter players laying up. In 2016, the top three par 5 scorers for the week finished 1-2-3 on the leaderboard (Scott, Watson, McIlroy). The model treats top-30 in driving distance as the hard gate. Top-20 is the preferred zone. Below top-50 is a structural fade no matter how strong the rest of the profile reads.
#3 — SG: Approach (20% model weight)
Once distance qualifies a player, approach play separates contenders from the cluster. The greens are large but undulating, run-off areas demand precise distance control, and many approaches into par 4s and par 5s come from 200+ yards. Long-iron proximity is a meaningful sub-metric. Approach matters here, but it's a tiebreaker on top of the distance gate, not a substitute for it.
#4 — Wind Tolerance & Composite T2G (23% combined)
South Florida wind is the course's primary defense. Calm conditions produce -12 to -19 winning scores. Sustained wind raises scoring averages dramatically and elevates ball-flight control as a differentiator. The model checks comp-course wind history (TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, Pebble Beach) when the forecast shows breeze. SG: Total / T2G composite gets a 15% weight as the "are you playing well enough to contend" filter.
What DOESN'T Matter Much
SG: Around the Green and SG: Putting. Combined model weight: 15%. Driving accuracy is also de-emphasized — fairways are wide enough at 25-40 yards that bombers gain more from extra distance than they lose from missing the short stuff. The model fades players priced primarily on accuracy or hot-putter narratives at this venue.
03 — Field Notes
The notable absences.
Five of the OWGR top 15 are not in this 72-player Signature Event field: Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg, and Robert MacIntyre. All five are pointing at next week's Truist Championship at Quail Hollow and the PGA Championship at Aronimink the following week. McIlroy has now skipped two consecutive Signature Events post-Masters. Fitzpatrick is skipping after winning RBC Heritage in a playoff over Scheffler.
This is structurally meaningful for the betting card. Removing five top-15 players compresses the value tier and pushes more probability mass onto Scheffler at +310 and Cameron Young at +1300. It also opens up legitimate value on names like Chris Gotterup, Min Woo Lee, and Adam Scott who would normally sit behind those five at the top of the board.
The two past Doral winners in the field are Adam Scott (2016) and Justin Rose (2012). Both data points are pre-renovation in Scott's case and well pre-renovation in Rose's. Useful for course familiarity, not predictive of current form. In the current dataset only Scott clears the model's hard gates.
04 — Weather
Sunday wind is the variable.
Hot and humid throughout. Highs climbing from 89°F Thursday to 92°F Saturday. Wind 10-15 mph through the first three days with gusts to 20 mph on Thursday and Saturday. Sunday is the wild card — 20-25 mph southwesterly winds and a 50% rain probability. If the forecast holds, the field will see two faces of the Blue Monster: scoreable on Thursday and Friday, then progressively tougher into the weekend with a final round that could turn the course into a brute.
The model's adjustment: weight wind-tolerant ball strikers slightly heavier than a calm-conditions read would suggest. Players with strong recent finishes at TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, and Pebble Beach (wind-exposed coastal venues) get a small bump. Pure bombers without ball-flight control get a small fade.
Thu R1
89°F
Mostly sunny
10-15 / G20
Sat R3
92°F
Sunny
10-15 / G20
Sun R4
90°F
50% rain
SW 20-25
Source: BetMGM weather projections, April 28 update.
05 — Regression Output
The model's top 15.
Composite scores from the StrokesEdge Doral regression. Weights: SG: OTT (30%), Driving Distance (20%), SG: APP (20%), SG: Total / T2G proxy (15%), SG: ARG (8%), SG: Putt (7%). All inputs from 2026 PGA Tour YTD data through the RBC Heritage. Score is normalized 0.000–1.000 across the full 169-player dataset; 1.000 would be the theoretical perfect player.
| Rk | Player | Score | Dist | OTT | APP | Total | Gate Status |
|---|
| 1 | Chris Gotterup | 0.881 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 14 | PASS |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | 0.870 | 36 | 5 | 65 | 1 | DIST near-miss |
| 3 | Cameron Young | 0.868 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 9 | DIST near-miss |
| 4 | Min Woo Lee | 0.867 | 12 | 11 | 50 | 12 | PASS |
| 5 | Nicolai Højgaard | 0.838 | 10 | 44 | 16 | 13 | PASS |
| 6 | Jake Knapp | 0.824 | 6 | 54 | 27 | 8 | PASS |
| 7 | S. Yellamaraju | 0.813 | 21 | 33 | 26 | 17 | PASS |
| 8 | Adam Scott | 0.804 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 18 | PASS |
| 9 | Gary Woodland | 0.798 | 2 | 13 | 59 | 30 | PASS |
| 10 | Collin Morikawa | 0.788 | 89 | 16 | 1 | 6 | DIST FAIL |
| 11 | Keith Mitchell | 0.780 | 28 | 6 | 35 | 38 | Near-miss |
| 12 | Jacob Bridgeman | 0.771 | 50 | 51 | 20 | 4 | Borderline |
| 13 | Jordan Smith | 0.766 | 23 | 18 | 29 | 43 | Near-miss |
| 14 | Ryo Hisatsune | 0.757 | 83 | 23 | 22 | 21 | DIST FAIL |
| 15 | Rasmus Højgaard | 0.744 | 9 | 61 | 40 | 27 | PASS |
Eight players cleared all three hard gates (Dist Rank ≤30, SG: Total Rank ≤30, positive SG: OTT). Scheffler and Young miss the distance gate by two-six spots and are treated as model edge cases below.
— — — T H E C A R D — — —
06 — Outright / E/W Winner Plays
Where the edge is.
★ PICK OF THE WEEK — E/W WINNER · 2 UNITS
Model Rk 1 · Dist Rk 4 (320.1 yds) · OTT Rk 8 (+0.613) · 2 wins in 2026 · Passes all gates
The cleanest model fit in the field. Gotterup ranks 4th on Tour in driving distance, 8th in SG: Off the Tee, and 14th in SG: Total. He has already won twice in 2026 — the Sony Open and the WM Phoenix Open — and his 2025 Scottish Open win came in serious wind, which is the differentiator the Sunday forecast needs. Bermuda greens are his best surface (9th-best putter on Bermuda over the past two years per Golf Digest). He gained strokes on approach in nine straight starts before Heritage. The market is pricing him at +2700-3000 because his Heritage run was an underperformance until a Sunday 64. That's narrative, not signal. At this profile, this price is the week's best outright.
Model #12026 wins x2Dist Rk 4Bermuda 9thWind player
E/W WINNER · 1.5 UNITS
Model Rk 4 · Dist Rk 12 (316.1 yds) · OTT Rk 11 (+0.610) · Total Rk 12 · Passes all gates
The second outright play and the only Top 15 in the model with positive scores in every SG category. Min Woo gains across the board: APP +0.225, ARG +0.311, OTT +0.610, PUTT +0.227. He's a 2026 Houston Open winner and has finished inside the top 10 in three of his last seven starts. Bermuda Florida courses suit him historically. The +2200 outright price comes with E/W leverage at 1/4 odds for top 5 places that the all-around profile makes realistic. He passes every gate cleanly.
Model #4All-positive SGHouston winnerAll gates pass
E/W WINNER · 1 UNIT · PRICE-DEPENDENT
Model Rk 8 · 2016 Doral champion · SG: APP Rk 3 on Tour (+0.912) · Dist Rk 18
The course-history pick with actual model support. Scott is the last man to win on the PGA Tour at this course and his 2026 numbers don't ask the bettor to forgive anything material. Third on Tour in SG: Approach. Eighteenth in driving distance. He passes every gate. The putter is the soft spot (PUTT Rk 86) but on these large greens, lag putting matters more than make rate. At +3300 the math on an each-way ticket is reasonable. The reason this is a smaller play than Gotterup or Min Woo is the age volatility, not the data.
2016 champ3rd SG:APPAll gates passAge variance
07 — Top 5 / Top 10 Plays
Finish-market core.
No-cut Signature Event with a 72-player field means top 5 and top 10 markets pay differently than at a standard 156-player event — the implied probabilities are higher, but the field is also stronger. The model still allocates more weight to finish markets here because the distance gate creates a tight cluster of qualifying contenders.
TOP 5 · 3 UNITS · MATH PLAY
Model Rk 2 · Total Rk 1 (+2.049) · OTT Rk 5 · ARG Rk 2 · Two consecutive runner-ups
The outright at +310 is the fade. The Top 5 is the math bet. Scheffler is the model's #2 fit despite a Dist Rank of 36 — his SG profile is so dominant elsewhere (Total Rk 1, OTT Rk 5, ARG Rk 2, GIR Rk 7) that he overcomes the distance question. He's coming off back-to-back runner-ups at the Masters and Heritage. He won at the Cadillac scheduling slot in 2024 (Heritage post-Masters). In a compressed Signature field with the top 5 tier already thinned by absences, the implied 35%+ probability of a top 5 finish is fair-to-undervalued at +135.
Fade the outright. Play the Top 5.
Top 5 onlyNOT outrightTotal Rk 12x runner-up
TOP 10 · 2.5 UNITS
Model Rk 3 · OTT Rk 10 · APP Rk 18 · Total Rk 9 · T3 Masters, Players champion
Young misses the distance gate by two spots (Rk 32) and that's why this is a Top 10 play instead of an outright at +1300. Everything else profiles. OTT Rk 10, APP Rk 18, Total Rk 9. He has three top-three finishes in his last four starts including the Players Championship win. The Sunday wind forecast suits a player who can flight the ball on demand. The outright math at +1300 is fair-to-rich because of the distance gate; the top-10 number at +200 is where the model edge lives.
Top 10 corePlayers champ3 of 4 top-3s
TOP 10 · 2 UNITS
Model Rk 4 · Already on outright card · 1/4 stake at finish-market price for variance management
A correlated finish-market layer to the outright above. If Min Woo contends, the Top 10 cashes; if he runs out of gas Sunday but holds a top-10 line, the finish ticket pays while the outright doesn't. At +260 with the model fit, the implied probability is below his model-implied finish rate.
Correlated to outrightTop 10
TOP 10 · 2 UNITS
Model Rk 5 · Dist Rk 10 (317.1 yds) · APP Rk 16 (+0.594) · Total Rk 13 · Passes all gates
Quietly fifth in the model. Distance Rk 10 at 317.1 yards. Approach Rk 16 — third-best of any qualifier behind Morikawa and Adam Scott. He passes all three hard gates. The OTT Rk 44 is the only soft data point and it's a contradiction with the raw distance number, which the model treats as a more reliable structural signal than the SG: OTT efficiency rank. At +450 this is the sneaky Top 10 ticket nobody talks about.
Model #5Dist Rk 10APP Rk 16All gates pass
08 — Top 20 Plays
High-floor base.
In a 72-player no-cut event, Top 20 is roughly the top 28% of the field. The model treats this market as the safest exposure for players who pass the distance gate but have a single soft data point preventing outright consideration.
TOP 20 · 3 UNITS
Model Rk 6 · Dist Rk 6 (319.8 yds) · Total Rk 8 · PUTT Rk 7 · Passes all gates
Pure bomber profile with a hot putter. Jake Knapp ranks 6th on Tour in driving distance, 7th in SG: Putting, and 8th in SG: Total. He passes every hard gate. Three top-10 finishes in 2026 already with a runner-up at the American Express. The OTT efficiency rank is 54 (a soft data point), and that's the reason this is a Top 20 play and not a higher-conviction outright. At +150 for a Top 20 with this profile in a thinned field, the implied probability is conservative.
Dist Rk 6PUTT Rk 7Top 20 core
TOP 20 · 3 UNITS · POTD QUALIFIER
Top 20 stack on the outright pick — model #1 fit with a finish-market floor
Stacked behind the outright as the variance floor. If Gotterup contends, both tickets cash. If he posts a strong-but-not-winning week, the Top 20 still pays. At +115 the price is in the range where the POTD rules apply (-200 to +200) and the model-implied probability comfortably exceeds the implied break-even. Highest-conviction Top 20 on the card.
Stack on outrightPOTD
TOP 20 · 2 UNITS
Model Rk 9 · Dist Rk 2 (323.5 yds) · OTT Rk 13 · 3 prior Doral starts · Passes all gates
Second-longest hitter in the field at 323.5 yards. OTT Rk 13. Three prior starts at Doral with finishes of T16, T23, T29 and ranked 3rd in SG: Ball Striking the last time he was here in 2015. With the 2024 health issues now behind him, his game has rounded back into form (recent T7 at Memorial Park). The ARG Rk 154 is bad but Doral isn't an ARG course. At +185 Top 20, the distance profile is the entire ticket.
Dist Rk 23x Doral startsTop 20
TOP 20 · 2 UNITS
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
+220
Model Rk 7 · Dist Rk 21 · OTT Rk 33 · APP Rk 26 · Total Rk 17 · Passes all gates
The unfamiliar name on a passing-the-gates list. Yellamaraju ranks 7th in the model and the broader market hasn't priced him into Top 20 markets aggressively because the public-betting volume isn't there yet. Dist Rk 21, Total Rk 17, all SG categories positive except APP and ARG which are slightly above field average. Make-cut markets don't exist this week (no cut), so Top 20 is the floor play.
Model #7All gates passMarket lag
09 — Head-to-Head Matchups
72-hole matchup card.
Matchup markets at Doral are particularly exploitable because the distance gate creates clean structural edges between players the market is treating as similar. The four matchups below all pair a player who passes the gate against one who fails it.
Matchup 01 · 2 units
Pick: Burns +110. Henley's market price (+2500 outright) is built on his T3 at Augusta and accuracy-first profile. At Harbour Town that profile worked. At Doral it does not. Henley is Dist Rk 149 — third-shortest player to clear the model's broader top-50 in Total. Burns is Dist Rk 24, ranks 11th in SG: Putting, and has finished T21 or better in four straight events. The model gives Burns the edge: 0.661 score vs. Henley's 0.606. Plus odds against a structurally worse course-fit.
Matchup 02 · 2 units
Pick: Matsuyama -112. Both fail the distance gate (Hideki Rk 104, Hovland Rk 109), so the matchup comes down to who profiles better as a precision specialist who can survive on a power course. Hideki has clear edges: APP Rk 14 vs. Hovland's 41, ARG Rk 13 vs. 26, Total Rk 16 vs. 47. He has prior Doral history with positive OTT and APP gain when the Tour was here last. Model scores: Hideki 0.636, Hovland 0.528. The line is essentially pick'em; the model says it shouldn't be.
Matchup 03 · 1.5 units
Pick: Scott -120. The two past Doral champions in the field, and the market is treating this as a course-history coin flip. The model isn't close. Scott Dist Rk 18 vs. Rose Rk 74. Scott OTT Rk 41 vs. Rose Rk 132 (Rose has a deeply negative OTT number this season). Scott Total Rk 18 vs. Rose Rk 39. Approach is similar. Putting is similar. Distance and OTT decide it. Model edge: 0.804 vs 0.565 — the largest edge on the matchup card.
Matchup 04 · 1.5 units
Pick: Knapp -105. Cantlay is the public name and the market is pricing him short on recent form (T8 Heritage, T12 Masters, T7 Valspar). The model says Dist Rk 114 fails too hard at Doral. Knapp passes every gate (Dist Rk 6, Total Rk 8, OTT positive). At a near-pick'em line against a Cantlay who structurally fails the venue, the value is on the player who fits the course.
Matchup lines are screenshots from book selection — confirm the exact line is still available before placing the bet. Lines from FanDuel and BetMGM as of April 28 morning.
10 — Longshots
Price-forward variance.
LONGSHOT · 0.5u OUTRIGHT + 1.5u TOP 30
Dist Rk 1 (325.0 yds) · OTT Rk 3 (+0.698) · APP Rk 129 · ARG Rk 161 · Pure variance
The longest hitter on Tour. Period. 325.0 yards average and the only player in the field with both Distance Rk 1 and OTT Rk 3. He led the entire PGA Tour in driving distance in 2025 and a switch to PXG hasn't slowed that down. The reason for the +10000 price is the rest of the bag — APP Rk 129, ARG Rk 161, and a 12-over 84 to open the Masters two weeks ago. But he turned around at Heritage with three consecutive 67s after that 84. On a course where the par 5s decide the winner and the longest hitters separate from the field, his ceiling at this price is mathematically real even with the variance. PGA Tour expert picks have him at +210 for Top 30.
Dist Rk 1OTT Rk 3Pure varianceRecovery story
LONGSHOT · 0.5u OUTRIGHT + 1u TOP 20
Model Rk 15 · Dist Rk 9 (319.0 yds) · OTT Rk 61 · APP Rk 40 · Passes all gates
The smaller-print Højgaard. Rasmus ranks 15th in the model, passes every hard gate, and at 319.0 yards average has the distance profile to leverage all four par 5s. Total Rk 27. The OTT efficiency rank is the soft data point, but raw distance compensates structurally. At +8000 the math works on a small outright and a Top 20 stack at a more reasonable price.
Dist Rk 9All gates passLongshot
11 — Recommended Parlay
Correlation play.
Two parlays this week. Both built on positive correlation — players whose game profiles are similar enough that contention from one increases the probability of contention from the other.
PARLAY 01 · 2.5 UNITS · POWER STACK
Gotterup Top 10 (+260) + Min Woo Lee Top 10 (+260)
The two highest-conviction outright plays parlayed at the Top 10 level. Combined price ~+1200. Both pass every model gate, both have 2026 wins, both profile as power-and-precision players in the wind-tolerant tier. If Sunday's wind hits, this stack is exactly the profile that benefits relative to the field. One leg failing kills the ticket; both legs passing pays the week.
PARLAY 02 · 1 UNIT · MATCHUP STACK
Burns over Henley (+110) + Scott over Rose (-120) + Hideki over Hovland (-112)
Three head-to-head matchups parlayed for a combined price near +300. Each leg is a player who passes the distance gate against a player who fails it. The correlation isn't perfect, but the structural argument behind every leg is the same: distance is the gate at Doral and the market is pricing the matchups as if it isn't. If the model thesis on the venue is right, all three legs cash together more often than they fail independently.
12 — Fade Alerts
What we're fading and what we're not.
The market is overpaying for two profiles this week: precision specialists with no distance, and recent-form names whose recent form came at courses with the opposite winner profile. Every fade below specifies the exact bet being avoided and what remains valid.
FULL FADE — NO PLAY ANY MARKET
Model Rk 47 · Dist Rk 149 (293.1 yds) · OTT Rk 59 · 4th-shortest priced inside top-10 of the market
What we're fading: Everything. Henley is the model's most extreme structural mispricing on the board. Market price +2500 (4th-shortest). Model rank 47. He averages 293.1 yards off the tee, giving up roughly 30 yards per swing to the field's bombers across four par 5s. His 2026 form (T3 Masters, prior Heritage finishes) is built on accuracy and approach — both of which are de-prioritized at this venue. The CBS / SportsLine model loves him. Their model uses different weights. The StrokesEdge Doral framework rates him a structural fade across all markets at any price below +5000.
Fade all marketsDist Rk 149Model #47
FADE: OUTRIGHT AND TOP 10 · TOP 30 ONLY
Dist Rk 114 · Total Rk 25 · APP Rk 54 · Recent T8 Heritage / T12 Masters / T7 Valspar
What we're fading: The outright at +3000 and any Top 10 line. Cantlay's 2026 form is real (three top-12s in his last four starts). The course-fit isn't. Dist Rk 114 is a structural failure at Doral regardless of approach numbers. He hasn't won since 2022 and his short-comings on Sunday are documented. The market is pricing the form, not the venue.
What we're NOT fading: Top 30 at the right price. The Total rank of 25 means he can absolutely finish in the top half of a no-cut field. Anything tighter than that is paying for a profile that doesn't fit the course.
Fade outrightFade Top 10Top 30 OK
FADE: OUTRIGHT · TOP 10 STILL VALID
Model Rk 10 · APP Rk 1 on Tour (+1.136) · Dist Rk 89 (302.3 yds) · Back issue still in play
What we're fading: The outright at +2200. Morikawa is the #1 SG: Approach player on Tour and his model rank of 10 is held back almost entirely by the distance gate failure (Rk 89). Six top 10s in his last seven starts including the Masters and Heritage played through what reporting describes as a back issue. The outright price doesn't account for either the venue mismatch or the health uncertainty.
What we're NOT fading: Top 10 markets. His approach numbers are good enough to finish anywhere on the leaderboard if he plays four clean rounds. At +260-ish for a Top 10, the iron play could carry the ticket even with the distance question. Just not the outright.
Fade outrightTop 10 OKAPP Rk 1
FADE: OUTRIGHT AND TOP 10 · TOP 20 OK AT RIGHT PRICE
Total Rk 23 · OTT Rk 116 (-0.167) · Dist Rk 71 · ARG Rk 15 (only positive structural data point)
What we're fading: Outright at +5500 and Top 10. Theegala's Total Rk 23 is propped up by his short-game numbers. SG: OTT is negative (-0.167). Driving distance ranks 71. He'll bleed strokes on the par 5s relative to the field every round. The Sunday wind would punish his ball-flight profile further.
What we're NOT fading: Top 20 if priced above +250. The short-game numbers are good enough to keep him in the top third of a small field even with the structural distance penalty.
Fade outrightFade Top 10Top 20 OK
13 — The Full Card
Every pick at a glance.
| Tier | Player | Odds | Bet Type | Units |
|---|
| ★ Best Pick | Gotterup | +2700 | E/W Winner | 2u |
| E/W Winner | Min Woo Lee | +2200 | E/W Winner | 1.5u |
| E/W Winner | Adam Scott | +3300 | E/W Winner | 1u |
| Top 5 | Scheffler | +135 | Top 5 | 3u |
| Top 10 | Cameron Young | +200 | Top 10 | 2.5u |
| Top 10 | Min Woo Lee | +260 | Top 10 | 2u |
| Top 10 | N. Højgaard | +450 | Top 10 | 2u |
| Top 20 | Knapp | +150 | Top 20 | 3u |
| Top 20 (POTD) | Gotterup | +115 | Top 20 | 3u |
| Top 20 | Woodland | +185 | Top 20 | 2u |
| Top 20 | Yellamaraju | +220 | Top 20 | 2u |
| H2H | Burns / Henley | +110 | 72-hole H2H | 2u |
| H2H | Hideki / Hovland | -112 | 72-hole H2H | 2u |
| H2H | Scott / Rose | -120 | 72-hole H2H | 1.5u |
| H2H | Knapp / Cantlay | -105 | 72-hole H2H | 1.5u |
| Longshot | Potgieter | +10000 | E/W Winner | 0.5u |
| Longshot | Potgieter | +210 | Top 30 | 1.5u |
| Longshot | R. Højgaard | +8000 | E/W Winner | 0.5u |
| Longshot | R. Højgaard | +450 | Top 20 | 1u |
| Parlay 1 | Gott + MWL | ~+1200 | Top 10 / Top 10 | 2.5u |
| Parlay 2 | 3-leg H2H | ~+300 | Burns + Scott + Hideki | 1u |
| Fade (all) | Henley | +2500 | Full fade | — |
| Fade (out+T10) | Cantlay | +3000 | Top 30 only | — |
| Fade (out) | Morikawa | +2200 | Top 10 OK | — |
| Fade (out+T10) | Theegala | +5500 | Top 20 OK | — |
Total Card Exposure: ~37 units
E/W Winner plays: 4.5u · Top 5/10/20: 19.5u · H2H matchups: 7u · Longshots: 3.5u · Parlays: 3.5u
Weighted ~22% on outrights, ~52% on finish markets, ~19% on H2H matchups, ~7% on longshots and parlays. The matchup allocation is unusually heavy this week because the distance gate creates clean structural edges across multiple matchup pairings the market is treating as coin flips.
⚠ Reminder. Check the pick tracker
The card above is the pre-tournament model output. Final bet sizing and specific picks that hit the live card may shift based on line movement between now and the first tee ball. Always cross-reference the
pick tracker for the confirmed bets before following any pick. The tracker is the authoritative record. Win, lose, or open.
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