Archived Analysis · Valero Texas Open 2026 · TPC San Antonio

Week 9 · Standard Event · Cut

ValeroTexas Open.

TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks) · Par 72 · 7,435 yards · April 2–6, 2026

TPC San Antonio's AT&T Oaks course is a long, wind-exposed Pete Dye layout that plays as a positioning and approach-play test. Distance matters, but only from the correct angles. The week before the Masters creates a unique field dynamic — some elite players skip, some use it as preparation, and the market regularly misprices the field composition.

01 — Course Profile

TPC San Antonio's fingerprint.

TPC San Antonio AT&T Oaks is a Pete Dye design that opened in 2010. At 7,435 yards par 72 it is one of the longer venues on the Tour schedule. Wind exposure is significant — situated in the Texas Hill Country, gusts regularly reach 20-30 mph during tournament week, which compresses the field and elevates the value of accurate iron players over pure bombers.

The course features a distinctive routing with significant elevation changes for a Texas layout. Several dogleg holes demand precise tee-shot placement. Greens are Bermudagrass and run fast. The combination of length, wind, and a Dye design language that punishes positional errors makes this a course where consistent ball-strikers in both directions outperform the distance-only profile.

The model classifies TPC San Antonio as a wind-exposed length and approach course with a positioning filter off the tee. SG: Approach is the primary predictive stat. SG: Off-the-Tee matters more here than at most Dye courses because of the length and the wind.

7,435

Total
Yardage

Par
Pete Dye

156

Field
Standard cut

Par 5s
Course

02 — What Predicts Success Here

The stats that matter.

#1 — SG: Approach the Green

Approach play is the primary predictive stat at TPC San Antonio. Wind-affected approaches to Bermuda greens demand precise yardage control and trajectory management. Players who rank elite in SG: Approach consistently appear at the top of Valero leaderboards regardless of their off-the-tee profile.

#2 — SG: Off-the-Tee (positioning)

Unlike most Dye courses where the accuracy component of SG: OTT is less predictive, TPC San Antonio's length and wind exposure make tee-shot positioning genuinely important. Players who can shape the ball and hold their line in wind reach better angles into greens. The correlation is stronger here than at Harbour Town or Augusta.

The Masters week effect

The Valero sits the week before the Masters. Elite players either skip it entirely to prepare (Conners has skipped it to prep despite winning here twice) or use it as a tune-up. The field typically contains several mid-ranked players playing their best golf of the spring, plus a handful of top-50 players who treat it as a warm-up. That creates pricing inefficiency at the top of the board.

03 — 2026 Winner History

Recent winners.

Year	Winner	Score	Key Stat
2025	Akshay Bhatia	-19	Won in playoff. Elite approach play all week. T2 finished Matt Wallace.
2024	Akshay Bhatia	-20	Back-to-back Valero winner. Top-3 SG: Approach for both winning weeks.
2023	Corey Conners	-16	Wind week. Approach and OTT dominated. Low winning score due to conditions.
2022	J.J. Spaun	-19	Breakthrough win. Ball-striking dominated — SG: T2G led the field.
2021	Jordan Spieth	-19	Emotional win in home state. Elite approach and course management in wind.

04 — 2026 Week Notes

How the week played out.

The 2026 Valero Texas Open was played April 2-6 at TPC San Antonio. The full pre-tournament picks and analysis for this week were distributed via the StrokesEdge Substack newsletter. Picks placed are recorded on the StrokesEdge pick tracker with full results and ROI.

Note — pre-site analysis

The Valero Texas Open 2026 was analyzed before the full StrokesEdge site architecture was in place. The full pick rationale, player stat tables, and betting angles for this week live in the Substack archive at strokesedge.substack.com. All confirmed bets from the week are recorded on the pick tracker.

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