TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch is a different puzzle than Colonial. Par 72 with four par 5s means distance genuinely matters here, and the regression weights reflect it — SG: Off the Tee runs closer to the middle of the weighting structure at Craig Ranch, not near zero like at Colonial.
Bermudagrass greens rather than bentgrass changes the putting profile entirely. Putting on Bermuda rewards a different stroke pattern than bentgrass, and players who excel specifically on Bermuda surfaces see a different model treatment than their overall SG: Putting numbers suggest. The model uses surface-specific putting stats wherever available.
The fairways at Craig Ranch are wider than Colonial, which reduces the Driving Accuracy weight and shifts more value toward distance and approach quality in the 150-200 yard band. Four par 5s create legitimate eagle opportunities for longer hitters, amplifying the OTT signal compared to a venue like Colonial or Augusta.
Wind is a genuine factor at Craig Ranch. North Texas wind plays in full from the exposed back nine, and the model incorporates a wind resistance multiplier on the approach stats for players who grade below average in their ball flight trajectory data. That adjustment is not visible in the basic rankings but sits inside the L1 regression output.
Full TPC Craig Ranch course guide — historical winner profiles, detailed regression history, and annual betting angles.
View Course Guide →L1 Course Regression · TPC Craig Ranch · Calibrated for 2025 field conditions
| Stat | Weight | Distribution | L2 Gate | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG: Approach (APP) | 28% | ≥ +0.20/rnd | #1 | |
| SG: Off the Tee (OTT) | 20% | ≥ 0.00/rnd | #2 | |
| SG: Putting (Bermuda) | 18% | ≥ 0.00/rnd | #3 | |
| SG: Around Green (ARG) | 14% | ≥ 0.00/rnd | #4 | |
| Driving Distance | 12% | Top 60 field | #5 | |
| Prox 150–175 yds | 8% | Top 60 field | #6 |
The contrast with Colonial is stark and intentional. OTT at 20% versus Colonial's 3% reflects the structural role of driving distance when four par 5s are in the rotation. The par-5 scoring rate is the biggest swing stat at Craig Ranch, and it heavily rewards players who can reach greens in two consistently.
ARG at 14% is also meaningfully higher than Colonial's 5%. Bermudagrass rough and the grain pattern around the greens creates short-game situations that genuinely separate players. The scrambling component has a cleaner signal here than at tighter, approach-dominant venues.
Top 12 model outputs from the 2025 run. Original scores and edge estimates preserved as published. Results confirmed from tracker.
| Rk | Player | Score | APP Rk | OTT Rk | PUTT(BG) | Odds | Edge% | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 96.2 | 1 | 8 | 15 | +250 | -4.80% | FADE |
| 2 | Collin Morikawa | 91.4 | 4 | 22 | 8 | +1800 | +2.10% | PLAY |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele | 89.8 | 6 | 12 | 18 | +1600 | -0.40% | MONITOR |
| 4 | Sahith Theegala | 87.3 | 12 | 5 | 20 | +3500 | +1.55% | PLAY |
| 5 | Max Homa | 85.1 | 8 | 30 | 12 | +2800 | +1.10% | PLAY |
| 6 | Jason Day | 83.6 | 18 | 15 | 5 | +3800 | +1.30% | PLAY |
| 7 | Tony Finau | 82.0 | 20 | 3 | 30 | +2500 | -0.85% | FADE |
| 8 | Adam Scott | 79.5 | 25 | 20 | 10 | +4500 | +1.20% | PLAY |
| 9 | Corey Conners | 77.8 | 10 | 40 | 25 | +5500 | +0.85% | MONITOR |
| 10 | Taylor Moore | 74.2 | 22 | 28 | 32 | +6000 | +1.40% | PLAY |
| 11 | Brendan Steele | 72.6 | 30 | 18 | 40 | +5500 | +0.92% | MONITOR |
| 12 | Brian Harman | 70.1 | 35 | 45 | 8 | +4000 | +0.60% | MONITOR |
Scheffler was the dominant model score but priced impossibly — the negative edge on a +250 outright favorite is essentially a statement that the market is pricing him at a probability the model can't justify, not that he's a bad player. That's a structural fade, not a performance fade. The outright is avoided; Top 10 at -200 range was not on the picks card either.
Morikawa at +1800 with a model #2 score was the clearest positive edge on the card. Approach quality on a wide-fairway Par 72 is his core profile. The value screen flagged it immediately.
Original picks as published. Results sourced from pick tracker. Archive preserved for full transparency.
| Tier | Player | Bet Type | Odds | Edge% | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 | Collin Morikawa | Top 10 | +1800 | +2.10% | — see tracker |
| Top 10 | Sahith Theegala | Top 10 | +3500 | +1.55% | — see tracker |
| Top 20 | Jason Day | Top 20 | +3800 | +1.30% | — see tracker |
| Top 20 | Taylor Moore | Top 20 | +6000 | +1.40% | — see tracker |
| Longshot | Adam Scott | Outright | +4500 | +1.20% | — see tracker |
| Make Cut | Max Homa | Make Cut | -130 | +1.10% | — see tracker |
| Fade | Scottie Scheffler | Fade outright. Top 10 valid. | +250 | -4.80% | Structural |
| Fade | Tony Finau | Fade outright only. | +2500 | -0.85% | OTT-only profile |
The Scheffler fade note is worth logging for posterity. Model #1 overall by score, but priced at roughly 28-30% implied probability on some books for a player whose model estimate was closer to 16-18%. That's not a slam on the pick — it's a documented case of the value screen doing exactly what it should. The outright is avoided when market probability materially exceeds model probability, regardless of where the player ranks in the model output.
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