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3MOpen 2026.

TPC Twin Cities · Blaine, Minnesota · July 23–26

Course overview and what matters.

TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer design in Blaine, Minnesota, playing as a par 71 at 7,431 yards for the 3M Open. It's one of the lowest-scoring stops on Tour — every winner since the event's 2019 debut has finished between -15 and -24. Water comes into play across a large share of the layout, with the all-carry par-3 17th and the lake-lined par-5 18th forming the defining closing stretch.

What stats matter this week: SG: Approach and SG: Off the Tee carry roughly equal weight, with Birdie-or-Better percentage close behind in a field that's going low all four days. Driving accuracy is overweighted by the market — moderate rough and generous fairways mean precision alone doesn't separate the field here.

Top 3 course fits: Players combining elite approach play with strong recent birdie-conversion numbers, regardless of driving distance. The course's short history (seven playings, seven different champions) means current form matters more here than at venues with a repeat-champion pattern.

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Full model rankings.

Complete player screening results from the StrokesEdge model, ranked by value score. All players scored on course-fit profile, recent form, and market pricing.

Complete picks card.

Full picks card with all tiers: Outright Winner, Top 10 Finish, Top 20 Finish, Longshot, and Fade positions. Complete wager sizing and rationale for each pick tier.

Fade notes.

Market overvaluations and player-specific reasons to fade. What the market is missing at this venue and which popular plays do not fit the TPC Twin Cities profile.

Bankroll notes.

Bankroll allocation strategy, odds management, and sizing rationale. Risk/reward on tournament favorites versus value plays given the field composition and forecast conditions.

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